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Post by quynhphuongnguyen on Jan 21, 2016 12:56:55 GMT
Oil and US share prices tumble over fears for global economy
US stocks fell heavily on Wednesday, with the Standard & Poor’s 500 falling 2.5% to take the index below 1,900 points for the first time since September, due to growing concerns about the falling oil price, which dipped below $30 a barrel for the first time in nearly 12 years. The S&P 500, which closed at 1,890 points, suffered its worst day since September and has fallen by 10% since its November peak taking it into “correction” territory, something that has not happened since August 2014. The Dow Jones industrial average dropped by 364 points, or 2.2%, to 16,151, and the Nasdaq composite dropped 159 points, or 3.4%, to 4,526. This deepened theNew York stock exchange’s already worst start to a year on record. Wednesday’s stock market declines were triggered by new figures showing US gasoline stockpiles had increased to record high, which caused Brent crude prices to fall as low as $29.96, their lowest level since April 2004, before settling at $30.31, a 1.8% fall. The oil price has fallen by 73% since a peak of $115 reached in the summer of 2014. Industry data showed that US gasoline inventories soared by 8.4m barrels and stocks of diesel and heating oil increased by more than 6m barrels – confirming the forecasts of many analysts that a huge oversupply of oil could keep prices low during most of 2016. Analysts said that growing fears of a weakening outlook for the global economy, made worse by falling oil prices, was behind the steep falls. Some oil analysts this week predicted that the price could fall as low as $10. In recent days several analysts have warned that the global economy could suffer a repeat of the 2008 crash if the knock-on effects of a contraction in Chinese output pushes down commodity prices further and sparks panic selling on stock and bond markets. Amid the turmoil, a $48bn bond offer by brewer Anheuser-Busch Inbev – to fund its takeover of SAB Miller – attracted a record $110bn of offers as investors sought relatively safe investments. Earlier in the day China’s stock market fell more than 2% after officials played down the significance of better-than-expected trade figures for December, saying exports could sink further before they find a floor. The numbers surprised the markets, where economists had been forecasting a much weaker reading. Traders were also cheered when the numbers were translated into the weakening local currency, the yuan, which showed exports reaching a record value in December, up 2% on the previous year. They appeared to offset gloomy predictions of a stock market rout in 2016 made by several investment bank analysts, including RBS’s credit chief, Andrew Roberts. Roberts warned earlier this week of a possible 20% drop in stock markets and a period of turmoil that would knock the prospects for global GDP this year. His advice to investors was to sell everything except high quality bonds. China’s stock market rallied almost 20 points initially, but comments by officials that weak demand for Chinese goods would continue to hurt the country’s economy in 2016 sent the Shanghai composite down 2.4% by the end of the trading period to 2949. Some economists argued that the figures showed trade with China was beginning to stabilise after a year of contraction. Daniel Martin, an economist at Capital Economics, said: “China’s trade data support our view that, despite the turmoil in Chinese financial markets, there has not been a major deterioration in its economy in recent months. “Meanwhile, another large trade surplus last month provides a cushion for the People’s Bank in the face of soaring capital outflows.” Tom Rafferty of the Economist Intelligence Unit said: “China’s improved trade data in December will probably act to reassure global investors unnerved by the recent volatility in the country’s financial and foreign exchange markets. “The data is in line with other indicators that suggest China’s economy is stabilising on the back of sustained stimulus measures.” The country’s global trade surplus widened by 21% to $60bn in December. Over the whole year it was $594bn. The country’s trade surplus in December with the European Union, its biggest trading partner, increased 36.8% to $15.6bn. The surplus with the US contracted 6% to $19.4bn. Some analysts questioned the trade figures, saying they were suspiciously buoyant after an unexplained 10% surge in exports to Hong Kong. That rise meant that the former UK colony imported more from mainland China than the US. Iris Pang, a senior economist for Greater China at Natixis SA in Hong Kong, told Bloomberg that the increase in exports to Hong Kong and China’s imports from the city probably indicated “fake invoicing”. The invoicing of China trade should be larger in December because of the wider gap between the onshore yuan and the offshore yuan traded in Hong Kong, she said. Albert Edwards, an economist at Société Générale, who has predicted that global stock markets will tumble this year, said moves by the Chinese authorities to devalue the yuan to boost exports would have profound consequences for the global economy. He said that despite a large trade surplus, the huge capital flight from China, as savers take their cash out of the country, was forcing the hand of regulators. “I have always thought that in order to revive a spluttering Chinese economy, the authorities would have to devalue, but not just because an overvalued exchange rate was squeezing their manufacturing sector. “Instead I felt that an overvalued exchange rate had steadily undermined competitiveness to the point that it had undermined the balance of payments. This was compounded last year by an accelerated capital outflow as anti-corruption measures intensified, and an unprecedented unwinding of dollar-denominated borrowings by Chinese corporates. All these factors have combined to take the Chinese balance of payments into deep deficit.” Optimists also pointed to a rise in Chinese crude imports to a record 7.82m barrels in December, up more than 21% from November, as a reason to believe that China’s ailing manufacturing sector was gearing up for better days. It appeared, however, that the world’s second-biggest oil consumer was simply taking advantage of the oil price rout to stock reserves and increase exports of refined products. Reference: Rupert Neate in New York and Phillip Inman in London (2016, January 13). Oil and US share prices tumble over fears for global economy. The Guardian. Retrieve from: www.theguardian.com/business/2016/jan/13/oil-and-us-share-prices-tumble-over-fears-for-global-economy
Graphic representation:
US's stock index in September 2015 and January 2016Unit: Point | S&P 500 | Dow Jones | Nasdaq Composite | | Sep 2015 | 1938.46
| 16514 | 4685 | | January 2016 | 1890 | 16151 | 4526 |
Unit: $bil
| Global trade surplus | China's trade surplus | | Before Dec-2015 | 49.6 | 11.4 | | After Dec-2015 | 60 | 15.6 |
1) What are the impacts of the decrease in oil price on your daily lives? 2) What's your opinion about the credibility of the information provided in the article? 3) From your perspective, how will oil price fluctuate in the next 2 years?
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Ha Luu
New Member
Nothing ventured, nothing gained.
Posts: 3 
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Post by Ha Luu on Jan 21, 2016 18:46:16 GMT
1) What are the impacts of the decrease in oil price on your daily lives?
OIL plays a vital role in our daily lives. Oil shows up in thousands of places besides vehicles’s fuel tank and engine. The changes in oil price, therefore, have evident impacts on life. In my estimation, lower oil price help to reduce the cost of living dramatically. To exemplify, with the decrease in oil price, I have to pay less for the petrol comsumption of my motorbike. In December 2015, the price of A92 was 16,400VND/l but according to the latest business news in 19, January 2016, A92 only costs 15,440VND/l, decreases by nearly 1000VND/l. Fortunately, this decline helps me to save approximately 6,000VND for each time filling up petrol for my Lead. Furthermore, this recent drop in oil price also results in lower price of products, especially imported products, for transportation costs less money for filling petrol as well as maintaining vehicles’ machinery. Consequently, the dropping of oil price has a positive effect on my daily life.
2) What is your opinion about the credibility of the information provided in the article?
To the best of my knowledge, “Oil and US share prices tumble over fears for global economy” is an article of The Guardian - a British national daily newspaper, founded and continuously published since 1821. The newspaper has been received several National Newspaper of the Year awards and has won the Best Newspaper category three years running in 2005, 2006 and 2007. Overall, this is a reputable non-scholarly source for all sorts of information and therefore, the crebility of the information provided in the article is assured. In addition, the authors of this article, Rupert Neate and Phillip Inman are experienced and well-qualified. To be more specific, Rupert Neate is a famous reporter, who was shortlisted for the reporter of the year at the 2012 British Press Awards and the British Journalism Awards; Phillip Inman is economics correspondent of the Guardian and Observer and he is also the author of Managing Your Debt, the Guardian e-book and the Financial Crisis - How Did We Get Here.
3) From your perspective, how will oil price fluctuate in the next 2 years?
As far as I am concerned, the price of oil has changed erratically this time and it seems to be arduous to make any prediction about the oil price in the future. However, from my perspective, there is every likelihood that the price of oil will drop to lower price in the next 2 years. The reason why crude oil has been dropping so fast firstly boils down to the simple economics of supply and demand. Saudi, Nigerian and Algerian oil is in a competition with Asian markets and the producers are forced to drop prices. Canadian and Iraqi oil production and exports are increasing year by year. At the same time, on the demand side, the economies of Europe and developing countries are weak; vehicles are becoming more energy-efficient and the need for crude oil or gas for radiator in the winter is diminishing due to the consequent effect of climate change. Therefore, the demand for fuel has undergone substantial shrinkage.
The second reason should be mentioned to is OPEC inaction. Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is an intergovernmental organization of 13 petroleum-exporting nations, founded in 1960 "to coordinate and unify the petroleum policies of its member countries and ensure the stabilization of oil markets, in order to secure an efficient, economic and regular supply of petroleum to consumers, a steady income to producers, and a fair return on capital for those investing in the petroleum industry." (Wikipedia) However, in recent years, the shale boom and increased production from the U.S. has “greatly reduced OPEC’s ability to dominate world oil markets,” said Charles Perry, chief executive officer of energy-consulting firm Perry Management. Despite a plethora calls from oil producers in Saudi Arabia, Algeria, Nigerian and Venezuela, "OPEC has not announced any plants to hold an emergency meeting. It almost seems like OPEC is not even trying to help stem the flow of oil or the drop in prices." (4 key reasons behind oil's latest price drop)
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Tu An
New Member
Impossible only means that you haven't found the solution yet
Posts: 11
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Post by Tu An on Jan 22, 2016 10:02:01 GMT
1) What are the impacts of the decrease in oil price on your daily lives?
Answer:
From my perspective, the decrease in oil price has some influences on our daily lives, both negative and positive. On the one hand, the oil revenues fell as Vietnam is an oil crude exporter. On the other hand, Vietnam also imports oil products for production and domestic consumption, which will now lower the oil price in our country. It is obvious that we are recently spending less money on gasoline.
2) How does isis's influence affect oil price? What should be done to address this issue?
Answer:
After considering, I believe that The Guardian is a reliable source.It is a British national daily newspaper, which was founded in 1821 as a local paper. Now it has grown into a national paper providing the readers with domestic and international news. In addition to its UK online edition theguardian.com, the paper also has two international websites, Guardian Australia and Guardian US. .A research had been carried out and shown that the Guardian in paper form had an average daily circulation of 189,000 copies, behind The Daily Telegraph and The Times, and ahead of The Independent; while the newspaper's online edition was the fifth most widely read in the world in 2014, with over 42.6 million readers. Therefore, the credibility of the information provided in The Guardian is guaranteed and reliable.
3) From your perspective, how will oil price fluctuate in the next 2 years?
Answer:
In my opinion, I believe that the oil price fluctuation will still endure in the next 2 years if the civil war caused by Isis does not end. Take Lybia for exampe, this region is historically oil rich, but recently Isis has hampered production. Some oilfield and pipeline has been damaged in a fire, and others have stopped production entirely during the war. To stop this issue, other countries especially United States and Russia should have a tough military action to put an end to the fighting in Lybia. Futhermore, the OPEC (the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries) plays an initial role in determining the oil price in recent year. OPEC controls 40% of the world's supply of oil,which can influence the price of oil and gas by increasing or decreasing production.
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Post by Quỳnh Nga on Jan 22, 2016 10:21:42 GMT
1, The fall of oil has definitely made positive impact on my daily life. Though this is bad news to people working in the oil industry, I can't denied the joy it brings to people like me. As the price of oil decreases, people who travel using private vehicles like I do get to spend less money every time we refill our gas tank . Like Ha's comment above '' this decline helps me to save approximately 6,000VND for each time filling up petrol for my Lead".
Another reason to say that the lower oil price has positively impacted on my daily life is the fact that the decrease in the costs to run machinery and vehicles decrease leads to the in most products price, which is actually great news to customers since we spend money on these products daily. Thanks to this, I now can put more money into savings and have more disposable money for items I have been avoiding for a long time.
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Post by Bùi Phanh on Jan 22, 2016 16:05:11 GMT
1) What are the impacts of the decrease in oil price on your daily lives?
Vietnam is favored by nature, which makes it one of the biggest holder of crude oil in Asia. However, we do not have the technical capabilities to turn crude oil into what we use for our vehicles and our machine. Therefore, gasoline, diesel fuel, residual fuel oil and so on, have to be imported. The falling of oil price has resulted in the falling of the price of many other products. For example, the payment we have to make to maintain our private transportations reduces considerably. We can also meet our daily needs at a more bargain price due to the fact that the oil for machine costs factories less than usual. To sum up, the decrease in oil price has led to the decrease in many things else price. This is great news for us, the consumers (but not that great for the producers and the society as a whole).
2) What's your opinion about the credibility of the information provided in the article?
This article is retrieved from The Guardian, a British national newspaper. The Guardian has long been one of my favorỉte sources of information. It has a long history of founding, developing and improving. It has also gained its reputation around the world for its reliability among other online newspaper like The New Yorker, BBC, The Telegraph and so on. Articles featured on this newspaper is informative, comprehesive and intriguing.
3) From your perspective, how will oil price fluctuate in the next 2 years?
The price of oil has been very capricious recently. It is highly likely that it will keep going up and down if Isis keeps up its game in winning over the world's oil resources and the U.S continues its embargo towards Russia. There is no garuantee in a stable stage for the oil price. It depends a lot on the politics, the demand for oil and the supply of oil.
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Post by minhphuong on Jan 22, 2016 16:07:21 GMT
1. On the bright side, the gradual fall of oil price has been unquestionably beneficial to my daily life. Since petrol is extracted from oil, the decreased price of oil will lead to the decreased price of petrol, which will save me a large amount of money in terms of running a motorbike. The petrol oil once reached 20 thousand dong per liter, but now it fluctuates between 15 thousand dong and 16 thousand dong. However, I personally think that this is only advantageous in transportation aspect. The prosperity of Vietnam based a lot on the amount of oil exported, thus when the global oil price dwindles, there will be less profits, or a non-profit income for Vietnam. Therefore, our living standards will be for sure lessened and we would not have enough budgets for developing the country. To include, I think the fall in oil price will be temporarily beneficial, yet distressing in a long term.
2. The article above is published in “The Guardian”, which is a long-lasting newspaper in Britain and trusted , as I believe, by many readers not only in the UK but also all over the world. Additionally, almost all the information provided in the article is facts rather than judgments or comments. Therefore, it could not be distorted or misunderstood. In conclusion, the article is reliable and trustworthy.
3. It is extremely difficult to make any comment about the oil price in the future because it is connected closely to the relation among America, Russia, Iran, and many other countries. Each country has their own conditions and plans; however, I think that America will not stop until Russia or other threats like ISIS surrender. And since America is not much affected by the price fall, I think this situation will continue and maybe the oil price will fall more substantially.
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Hoang Lan
New Member
When nothing goes right...go left.
Posts: 9
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Post by Hoang Lan on Jan 22, 2016 18:25:32 GMT
1) What are the impacts of the decrease in oil price on your daily lives?
Oil price decrease certainly has significant impacts on people's life but to me, it seems to be an exception. My most-used means of transport are coaches and buses, though not regularly, but I have not seen any change in their carriages. Some companies did adjust their carriages but disappointingly just in inconsiderable amount. Some even put up the prices of transportation when Tet holiday is around the corner in order to compensate for their losses in customers in this occasion. In addition, due to the fact that transport charges have not been reduced greatly enough, some commodities' prices remain nearly unchanged. Furthermore, oil price is not always stable, its trend is now even more unpredictable than ever. Therefore, oil price decrease is like a double-edged sword: People may be beneficial in present but in a long-term outlook, this issue may create negative effects on our country's economy.
2) What's your opinion about the credibility of the information provided in the article?
The article above is retrieved from The Guardian, which has long been renown as one of the most prestigious and reliable newspapers not only in the US but also in all over the world. It also conducted thorough investigation and revealed a few top secret political scandals from 2011 to 2014. Therefore, we can completely lay trust on the information of the article. In addition, there are many specific statistics and evidences exposed in the article to support its content such as "The Dow Jones industrial average dropped by 364 points, or 2.2%, to 16,151, and the Nasdaq composite dropped 159 points, or 3.4%, to 4,526",... It is the statistics and citations that assure the reliability of the article and show the author's in-depth awareness of the problem. The structure of the article is also of importance to its credibility. On a whole, the article is presented logically and clearly: Each of its pieces of information is supported by exact figure and citations,... In a nutshell, the article has succeeded in seizing the readers' belief in its information and content.
3) From your perspective, how will oil price fluctuate in the next 2 years?
As far as I am concerned, oil price stands a high chance of being unstable in the next two years. Iran's sanctions have just been lifted, which will make its oil production continue to grow in 2016 and 2017. Therefore, there is likelihood that oil price dwindles in 2016 and becomes erratic in 2017.
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Post by Lê My hihi :'> on Jan 23, 2016 11:55:20 GMT
1. What are the impacts of decrease in oil price on your daily lives?
The recent decrease in oil price is apparently a good news to many Vietnamese citizens. However, it does not have any significant impacts on my daily lives since electric bycicle is my primary mean of transport. Although price oil has never really been one of my concerns, it might pose a thread of economic deterioration in the long term because crude oil exports account for a considerable amount of Vietnam’s sate budget. In addition, the rise in price of oil can also stimulate local oil consumtion and production, which will probably highten the issue of severe environmental contaminaton that our contry has been long-term dealing with.
2. How does ISIS’s influence affect oil price? What should be done to address this issue?
To what I believe, the rise of ISIS has played an integral part in the decline in oil price recently. In the year 2014, ISIS started to seize control over Irag and Syria . Together with global economic crisis and the unsustainable growth in the amount of oil stockpiles, the power of ISIS over the two largest oil industries ( Irag and Syria) resulted in an unexpected increase in price of oil.
Honestly, there is hardly anything could be done to tackle this problematic issue. The one and only solution for related governments is to solve cross-national conflict which has been a major reason all the time.
3. From your perspective, how will oil price fluctuate in the next year?
Well, it is hard to imagine the future scenerio of oil price due to its unforseen change during the past. However, according to the global situation between 2014 and 2016, I do believe that there will be a great plunge in the price of oil in the near future.
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Post by Lê My hihi :'> on Jan 23, 2016 11:59:54 GMT
1. What are the impacts of decrease in oil price on your daily lives?
The recent decrease in oil price is apparently a good news to many Vietnamese citizens. However, it does not have any significant impacts on my daily lives since electric bycicle is my primary mean of transport. Although oil price has never really been one of my concerns, it might pose a thread of economic deterioration in the long term because crude oil exports account for a considerable amount of Vietnam’s sate budget. In addition, the rise in price of oil can also stimulate local oil consumption and production, which will probably highten the issue of severe environmental contaminaton that our contry has been long-term dealing with.
2. How does ISIS’s influence affect oil price? What should be done to address this issue?
To what I believe, the rise of ISIS has played an integral part in the decline in oil price recently. In the year 2014, ISIS started to seize control over Irag and Syria . Together with global economic crisis and the unsustainable growth in the amount of oil stockpiles, the power of ISIS over the two largest oil industries ( Irag and Syria) resulted in an unexpected increase in the price of oil.
Honestly, there is hardly anything could be done to tackle this problematic issue. The one and only solution for related governments is to solve cross-national conflict which has been a major reason all the time.
3. From your perspective, how will oil price fluctuate in the next year?
Well, it is hard to imagine the future scenerio of oil price due to its unforseen change over the past. However, according to the global situation between 2014 and 2016, I do believe that there will be a great plunge in the price of oil in the near future.
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Post by quynhnga on Jan 23, 2016 13:14:39 GMT
1) What are the impacts of the decrease in oil price on your daily lives?
The fall of oil has definitely made positive impact on my daily life. Though this is bad news to people working in the oil industry, I can't deny the joy it brings to people like me. As the price of oil decreases, people who travel using private vehicles like I do get to spend less money every time we refill our gas tank like Ha's comment above '' this decline helps me to save approximately 6,000VND for each time filling up petrol for my Lead". Another reason to say that the lower oil price has positively impacted on my daily life is the fact that the decrease in the costs to run machinery and vehicles decrease leads to the in most products price, which is actually great news to customers since we spend money on products made of petroleum such as plastic products, medical products and so on. I now can put more money into savings and have more disposable money for items I have been avoiding for a long time.
2) What's your opinion about the credibility of the information provided in the article?
As we all know each item we found online must be evaluated to determine its quality and credibility. With that in mind , I've done some analysis in order to determine the credibility of the article and came up with a conclusion that the information provided here is trustworthy, informative and useful. As it can be seen in the credit, this article was taken from a British national daily newspaper called "the Guardian" which is one of the most trustworthy source of news in the world. The full article mainly provides readers with statistics and analysis on on-going situations of oil price and the stock market with no incidence of ill will or manipulation. the writers made it clear that they wrote the article with impartiality, giving no trace bias towards any individual or religion and so on. They also used brief, concise language and quoted sayings with names of the authors . Further more, the article's content was a first-hand account and written by 2 professional journalists "Rupert Neate in New York and Phillip Inman in London" who is well credited. As for the currency, it can be seen that the articles was published on January 13, 2106 which was just recently. This means that the articles is right up to date regarding "Oil and US share prices" topic. Although there were information and numerous statistics making it quite hard to read through the article, the points were clearly presented. All thing considered, I reckon this article a nice one to read regarding topic of " Oil and US share price" or " Global Economy" .
3) From your perspective, how will oil price fluctuate in the next 2 years?
I personally think that the price of oil might get out of the gloomy zone and rise in the next 2 years since Isis has been getting weaker after each attacks of the Russian, America and so on, not to mention threats from numerous organizations all over the world. Their retreating from Middle East is just a matter of time. Moreover, it's irrational that governments of countries with main income as profit from the oil industry prompt no action. Jonathan Barratt, the chief investment financial officer at Sydney's Ayers Alliance, told Reuters: "Looking at current prices, oil producers will engineer something to push prices higher.".
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Post by thaochi on Jan 23, 2016 14:03:29 GMT
1) What are the impacts of the decrease in oil price on your daily lives?
I mostly travel to nearby places by bike or come to school by bus . Despite the decline in the cost of fuel, there would not probably be a drop in bus fare as the buses are rarely affected by the fluctuation of the oil price. Thus, the recent fall in the price of oil does not have an particular effect on my everyday life.
2) What's your opinion about the credibility of the information provided in the article?
The piece of news is published by The Guardian- a British national daily newspaper. It is one of the most trustworthy source of news in England for providing detailed information and latest news for almost 200 years. It also has received many awards for its contribution to public service reporting, one of which is the 2014 Pulitzer Prize.The content of the website is definitely well-written and comprehensive. It address the problem in detail by giving specific research data and precise analysis. Various points of view from analysts are also given to approach all aspects of the situation. On the whole, the validity of the information in the article can absolutely be reliable.
3) From your perspective, how will oil price fluctuate in the next 2 years?
In my opinion,the plunging price of oil might get worse for the following 2 years.First of all,there is an opposition between participating countries of the OPEC. Some countries are willing to cut oil production while the others are not. As the situation of the OPEC’s is highly intensive, the problem might not be solved in a near future. Moreover,there are more and more countries which start to join in the massive market of oil production. The price of a barrel of oil might be forced to drop due to the intensive competition between oil-producing countries. Last but not least,the demand for fuel might become gradually smaller as the developing countries,whose economies are relatively weak, are in need of more energy-saving transportation and economical domestic products. To sum up, the oil price
might still follow the downward trend in the time coming.
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Post by Minh Chau on Jan 23, 2016 14:20:11 GMT
1) What are the impacts of the decrease in oil price on your daily lives?
The decrease in oil prices has definetely made quite a few positive affect on our daily lives. The first thing that would come to everyone’s minds is lower oil prices helps to reduce living costs. The decrease of fuel prices is due to oil prices and citizens can save budgets from this decrease; travelling expenses, shipping fees and so on are lower as well. Moreover, the fall of oil prices is beneficial to the citizen but also the oil importers. However, for those oil exporting company and countries whose incomes are from exporting oil, like Vietnam and The United Arab Emirates, lower oil prices is not a very good thing. As far as I know, the decreasing in oil prices will lead to deficit in government budget, thus requires cutting expenditures and wages. The decline in price of oil, from my point of view, only has small utility.
2) What's your opinion about the credibility of the information provided in the article?
The article above is featured in theguardian.com, a British online news website. From what I have known, theguardian is a realiable source of news not just in Britain. But with the attraction of over 50 million unique readers per month, this online newspaper has asserted its place as a trustworthy online news source worldwide as well. From what I have read in “Oil and US share prices tumble over fears for global economy” and other articles on theguardian.com, I could draw a conclusion is that the published articles were always writen from an objective point of view, informative, and up to date.
3) From your perspective, how will oil price fluctuate in the next 2 years?
It is hard to predict what will happen to oil prices in the future. However, with the optimistic momentum of world’s financial situation, I personally think that purchasing power of enterprises will upswing, therefore will bump the oil prices up.
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Vu Duong Nhat Linh
New Member
Đợi em tốt nghiệp rồi kết hôn. Cuộc đời này, ngoài em ra, anh sẽ không lấy ai khác.
Posts: 8
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Post by Vu Duong Nhat Linh on Jan 23, 2016 14:29:42 GMT
1) What are the impacts of the decrease in oil price on your daily lives?
The fall in oil price assuredly has some notable influences on people’s daily lives. On the one hand, it is beneficial for consumers since the decline in oil price has led to the decline in the price of many other products. For instance, with the petrol price reduced by approximately 1000 VND per liter as a direct result from the decreased oil price, people can save money on running their private vehicles. In addition, the carriage can be reduced slightly or remained stable because transport companies pay less to refill their fuel tanks. On the other hand, the decrease in oil price can cause some negative effects in the long term. The decreased oil price may lead to lower profit in oil industry which makes great contribution to state budget of Vietnam. Therefore, the economic prosperity and the living standard may be affected. In conclusion, people’s lives are influenced both positively and negatively by the slump in oil price.
2) What’s your opinion about the credibility of the information provided in the article?
From my perspective, the information provided in the article is considerably trustworthy. Firstly, this article is featured in the online edition of The Guardian, a British national daily newspaper which is among the most reliable sources of news not only in the UK but all over the world. As far as I am concerned, its website was the fifth most widely read in the world as of October 2014, with over 42.6 million readers (Wikipedia). In addition, its authors are renowned reporters whose basic information is easy to get access to on theguardian.com as well as on the Internet. Furthermore, in this article, a multitude of statistics as well as opinions of well-known economists is provided to readers in an objective tone with the use of concise language. Last but not least, the data is certainly up-to-date as the article was published in January 13th, 2016. All in all, it is obvious that the article issues readers with credible information.
3) From your perspective, how will the oil price fluctuate in the next two years?
It is hard to give any forecast about the oil price since it depends on both the supply of oil and demand for oil. However, in my opinion, oil price will continue its downward trend in the next two years. On the demand side, the fall in oil price is a result from the slowdown in China economy, the world’s second largest economy. Because China constitutes a large share in the worldwide demand for oil, there is every likelihood that a further decline in oil price will arise from its slower economic growth. Furthermore, the depreciation of the Chinese currency unit and the rising debts level in the country have been adding to the insecurities of investors all over the world. On the supply side, as Iran prepares to ramp up its oil export business ahead of economic sanctions being lifted, its biggest regional rival, Saudi Arabia is determined to keep the price low by increasing oil production thus to oversaturate the market (http://www.ibtimes.com/oil-prices-2016-saudi-arabia-iran-rivalry-fuels-grim-outlook-amid-slow-china-economy-2243060). In addition, thanks in part to OPEC, a group of oil-producing countries which has let its members independently control their respective output, the oil price continues to trade well below last year's rates. In conclusion, oil industry seems to experience torrid upcoming years in terms of price.
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Post by ngothuphuong on Jan 23, 2016 16:15:07 GMT
1) What are the impacts of the decrease in oil price on your daily lives?
Oil is among the most predominent commodies that determines most of the
economy activities of the world; therefore, the fluctuation in the oil price will directly
affect on a country’s macro-economy, which is closely linked to its micro-economy. Therefore, it’s undeniable that in the meantime we Vietnamese citizens can feel the impact of the oil’s decreasing price on our daily life. Firstly, the fact that the world oil is less costly causes the downward movement of the domestic oil, gas and petrol’s prices. At the moment, and at least in the short term, we can experience the joy of cheaper oil price by travelling the same stretch of road but paying less; this advantage can be perceived more obviously by taxi drivers, delivery service providers or commuters (like me). The second point is that the general goods’ price will also be slightly reduced temporarily because of the decline in the transportation and manufacture fee. This is also another thing that people with low income such as students( me, for instance) and workers can make use of . However, when we have a broader perspective, the situation’s much more complex than most people think; for example, my father, working for a domestic oil exporting company, may have his salary reduced, but my aunt, managing an oil importing branch, can gain profit during this time. therefore, when looking at the overall picture, I suppose that there are not much changes to the whole economy of the country, but only small changes to the people’s lives.
2) What's your opinion about the credibility of the information provided in the article?
The article was extracted from website The Guardian, which is an online British national newspaper. This paper is in the top 5 most widely-read newspapers in the world (in 2014), and has won a range of British Press Awards, including “National Newpaper of the Year”. About the article, it is written by two well-known journalists, namely Rupert Neate and Phillip Inman: the former was nominated for “The Reporter of the Year” at the British Press Awards in 2012 while the latter is economics correspondent of the Guardian and Observer. Throughout the news, a wide range of statistics and numbers are used to help make clear the authors’ points, and at the end of the news the bibliography is presented properly. Regarding to the reliability of the information provided in the news, I have done some researches and found that the information is proved to be true by many other websites. Moreover, this piece of news also reach the expectation of being well-updated because it is last edited on January, 13th 2016. In conclusion, I personally believe in the credibility of the article
3) From your perspective, how will oil price fluctuate in the next 2 years?
Before drawing any conclusion, we should firstly reflect on the current world events. In my opinion, the unstability of geographical situation in Middle East is likely to linger for the next 2 years, not due to only the rise of ISIS but also the civil war in Syria. Russia and the West may continue confronting, but the West now tends to be closer to Russia to fight against IS. Moreover, the world’s oil reserve is predicted to be utilized for half a decade or more. These three factors above may keep the oil price to level out in the short term (2 years). However, Americans now claim that they have found a new method to exploit schist oil and gas, which will dramatically reduce the oil consumption in America. This factor, on the contrary, has a reversed effect and will cause the oil to be less expensive.
Put almost everything dominantly involved in consideration, I personally believe that the oil price will be decrease to some certain extent.
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Post by dongocdiep on Jan 23, 2016 17:04:23 GMT
1) What are the impacts of the decrease in oil price on your daily lives?
It is indisputable that oil plays a pivotal role in manufacture and transportation. Consequently, the decline in oil price will have a direct influence on the global economy as well as every citizen's life. As a matter of fact, the drop in oil cost results in lower petrol price. The cost of living, therefore, will be reduced. The most obvious example is travelling expenses. According to some of my friends who travel by motorbike, the decrease in petrol price enables them to save a handsome amount of money. However, as I go by electric bicycle, the petrol price does not have a significant impact on my living expenses. I hardly see any changes in the coach and taxi fares. In addition, the price of the goods has undergone a slight reduction. Therefore, no matter how considerably the oil price falls, it seems to make no difference to my daily life.
2) What is your opinion about the credibility of the information provided in the article?
From my own viewpoint, the information in this article is relatively trustworthy for some following reasons. Firstly, this article is retrieved from the online edition of The Guardian-a British national daily newspaper. As far as I am concerned, its online edition was the fifth most viewed in the world in 2014 with over 42.6 million readers. Secondly, the authors are renowned reporters. To be specific, Rupert Neate was short-listed for the reporter of the year at the 2012 Press Awards and the British Journalism Awards while Phillip Inman is economics correspondent of the Guardian and Observer. Thirdly, the article are well supported by opinions of leading economists in addition to a multitude of numeral data. The source of reference is also documented properly at the end of the article. Last but not least, the information is undoubtedly up to the minute as the article was published on January 13th, 2016.
3) From your perspective, how will oil price fluctuate in the next 2 years?
It seems to be hard to make any anticipation about the oil price due to the fact that it depends on the supply and demand. However, taking the current situation into consideration, the oil price may stand a high chance of continuing its downward trend in the near future. US domestic oil production has nearly doubled over the last few years, which may make this nation become a threat to the biggest oil-producing countries over the world. Arab Saudi, Nigeria and Algeria oil that was once sold in the US is suddenly competing for the Asian markets. Russia, despite its economic difficulties, manage to keep pumping. Intense competition has compelled oil-exporting countries to keep dropping oil price while the demand for oil in European and developing countries tends to go down owing to high inflation and weak economy development. Moreover, the inability of OPEC in intervening to stabilize the oil market will make the matter worse. It can take such a long time for these issues to be tackled so a recovery of oil price in the next 2 years is implausible.
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